WHEN MEXICO STARTS IN 2012 WILL HAVE A MAJOR BEARING ON THE PERUVIAN DEAL STOP DATE...


U.S. Import Volume
Per Year



Yearly report for range: 2005 through 2011



MANGOS
MEXICO













Commodity NameOrigin NameDatePoundsBoxes of 8.8 lbs
MANGOSMEXICO2005356,037,02440,458,753
MANGOSMEXICO2006422,407,50048,000,852
MANGOSMEXICO2007417,386,48347,430,282
MANGOSMEXICO2008367,115,09241,717,624
MANGOSMEXICO2009414,631,50147,117,216
MANGOSMEXICO2010472,026,96353,639,428
MANGOSMEXICO2011462,952,78352,608,271
Grand Total

2,912,557,346330,972,426




Source: USDA Market News - marketnews.usda.gov





BY WILL CAVAN


EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR


INTERNATIONAL MANGO ORGANIZATION (IMO)


VISTA, CALIFORNIA










AUGUST 24, 2011












As we enter the mango counter season, Brazil has started shipping Tommy Atkins mangoes that, if the volume is managed properly as all indicators lead us to believe, will make economic sense for shippers and importers this year.
Brazil is keeping volume in the 6 - 7 million (4kg) carton range for the USA market with an FOB price in the $6.00 - $8.00 range.

Ecuador has taken a very responsible role in managing volume with their mango exports and actually cut back volume to the 6 million carton range last season (Sept-Jan). This program makes money as well for shippers and importers in the USA.







The big question mark is Peru.






Unlike, Brazil, Peru does not have an internal market that can absorb excess production or even compete actively for mangoes produced.






Peru is 100% dependent on exports of their mangoes.






This gets really scary when you realize that 77% of Peruvian mangoes go to processors.






The 23% of mangoes that were fresh exported were enough to flood the USA market and break the backs of shippers and importers that had money invested in Peru.






Last season Peru projected exports of 7 million cartons, in line with Brazil and Ecuador.






In actuality, Peru completely ignored their projections and committed the equivalent of "Hara-Kiri"(Sepukku) and exported 12 million cartons to the USA market!






Imagine for a moment, if Peru cannot place all of the 77% of their mango production that goes to processed and even more fruit spills into the fresh export market?






Keep in mind that last year was an alternating (Low) production year for Peru. That means that in theory, this year is a High production year for Peru.






To compound the issue for Peru, the bloom is running late this year in Peru which is good for Ecuador (which starts earlier than Peru) but very bad for Peru that always butts heads with Mexico's early production out of Chiapas and Oaxaca, etc.






The chart on Mexico shows that 2011 was an alternating (Low) year for Mexico and that 2012 will be a higher volume year. Perhaps we will see a later crop depending upon the bloom in Chiapas which is still several months away. That is the only variable that could save Peruvian shippers this coming season.






Here is the exponential growth out of Peru for the past six years:

U.S. Import Volume
Per Year


Yearly report for range: 2005 through 2011Export to Excel











Commodity NameOrigin NameDatePoundsBoxes of 8.8 lbs
MANGOSPERU200549,131,1665,583,087
MANGOSPERU200653,205,7066,046,103
MANGOSPERU200773,411,7178,342,241
MANGOSPERU200886,601,4769,841,077
MANGOSPERU200942,631,6514,844,506
MANGOSPERU201070,583,1138,020,808
MANGOSPERU2011107,502,95012,216,244
Grand Total

483,067,77954,894,066

Source: USDA Market News - marketnews.usda.gov


2009 volume dropped due to el niƱo phenom...which is always a wild card in the Peruvian deal due to the February - March potential for floods.