DEBUNKING THE BRAZILIAN DEAL...SHIPPING DATA SHOWS THAT EUROPE IS A MUCH LARGER MARKET FOR BRAZIL THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...

By Will Cavan
Executive Director
International Mango Organization (IMO)
Vista, California


www.mangoworldmagazine.blogspot.com




September 2, 2011






Shipping statistics out of Brazil serve to prove just how important the European market is to Brazil mango exporters.


Last season (2010) Brazil shipped almost four times as much mangoes to Europe than the USA market.


3,801.5 (40 ft) containers were shipped to Europe in 2010 versus 1097 (40 ft) containers to the USA for the same period.


Put in 4 kg box terms, that would be just over 21 million cartons for Europe versus slightly over 7 million cartons for the USA market!


The big difference is that Brazil can ship to Europe on a year round basis as opposed to a three month window for the USA market.


The Brazil volume has been creeping up each year since 2008 when Brazil shipped 5.8 million (4kg) cartons to USA. In 2009 that number jumped up by almost one million cartons to 6.7 million. Last year (2010) volume to USA from Brazil inched up to just over 7 million cartons.


During the same time frame, European shipments in 2008 were an astonishing 23,653,476 cartons (4,266.5 (40 ft) Containers).


In 2009 Brazil cut back shipments to Europe and volume shipped totaled 18,317,376 (4kg) cartons.


Last season (2010) Brazil bumped up volume shipped to Europe for a total of 21,075,516, triple what was shipped to the USA market, yet roughly the same maximum volume on a weekly basis.


For whatever reason, historically weeks 42 through 48 seem to be the heaviest shipping volume from Brazil to Europe.


Importers interviewed by the IMO reveal that market tops for volume in any given week should be kept within the 60 to 75 container range.


One importer described conditions as "problematic" any week incoming volume from Brazil went over the 100 container thresh hold.


However, every year, Brazil ships as much as 277 containers at the peak. In recent years, Brazil has tried to keep peak volume under control. Recent years have peaked in the 140 to 170 container range per week during the peak in the European market.


The USA market sees prices moderate within the $6.00 to $8.00 band when volume is kept at the 100 container per week level.


The week 34 shipping data to USA is troubling because it comes at a time of year that Brazil historically ships somewhere in the 50 to 90 container range. last season Brazil maxed out at 120 containers in a given week about four weeks deeper into the deal. There were only 5 weeks that volume from Brazil went over the 100 container thresh hold in 2010. The maximum was 135 containers shipped in week 39 last year. The other over limits were in the week 36 through 40 time frame as follows: 104, 122, 116,135,and 104 (the 122 & 135 figure were mentioned in a previous paragraph).


Brazil has double shipments to USA on a week by week basis to USA compared to last year as well.


If the trend is to be believed, then we should see a higher peak during weeks 38 through 42 from Brazil.


Hopefully Brazil exporters are keeping a watchful eye on these numbers as well, and that mother nature will provide smooth sailing so that these volumes do not double up upon arrival in the market place.