AUGUST DATA ON COMMERCIAL PAPER INDICATES THAT THE ECONOMY IS IN "CONTRACTION MODE"...NO SIGN OF GROWTH IN THE NEAR FUTURE...

Commercial paper outstanding: August 2011

Commercial paper market shows weak expansion, a setback from the steady growth of July.




This chart shows the annual percent change in commercial paper outstanding over the past decade. After peaking in 2007, numbers have been falling over the past four years.




By SoldAtTheTop 

/ September 11, 2011

The Commercial Paper (CP) market is essentially a private debt market used by corporations as a generally cheaper means of funding typical recurring operations than drawing on a line of bank credit.

SoldAtTheTop

'SoldAtTheTop' is not a pessimist by nature but a true skeptic and realist who prefers solid and sustained evidence of fundamental economic recovery to 'Goldilocks,' 'Green Shoots,' 'Mustard Seeds,' and wholesale speculation.

Commercial paper, as financial instrument, is by no means a recent innovation and, in fact, you can read about how the CP market was affected by the many historic financial shocks experienced by the U.S.    (read Panic on Wall Street: A History of America’s Financial Disasters).

Although the Federal Reserve was able to artificially bring CP rates down significantly since the shocking 615 basis point spread blowout (A2/P2 spread) of late 2008, they had not been successful in preventing an overall contraction in the CP market.

The Federal Reserve calculates and published the total amount of CP outstanding every week and for August commercial paper outstanding presented a serious pullback dropping from a recent high set back in July and expanding at a meager rate of 3.16% on a year-over-year basis to $1097.80 billion, a level that is still notably lower than even the worst periods of the last two recessions.





The Christian Science Monitor has assembled a diverse group of the best economy-related bloggers out there. Our guest bloggers are not employed or directed by the Monitor and the views expressed are the bloggers' own, as is responsibility for the content of their blogs. To contact us about a blogger, click here.To add or view a comment on a guest blog, please go to the blogger's own site by clicking on paper-money.blogspot.com.

THE HOPE TODAY...DESPITE THE TERRIBLE LOSS & TRAGEDY...IS THAT WE CELEBRATE THE RESILIENCE OF THE HUMAN SPIRIT...IN THE FACE OF ADVERSITY...IN THE IMMORTAL WORDS OF WINSTON CHURCHILL:..."NEVER, NEVER, NEVER, GIVE UP!!!"...

An update on a post-9/11 forecast


Soon after the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, the Monitor ran an editorial from the perspective of 2011 on how America had changed. Were those predictions spot on?




By the Monitor's Editorial Board / 

September 9, 2011


Just days after the 9/11 attacks, an editorial ran in this space written from the perspective of 2011, or a decade hence. It predicted the many ways that America would transform itself.

Related stories

9/11 lessons not learned: three failed reforms
9/11 books: Which should you pick up?
Too young to understand, 'Generation 9/11' embraces media for meaning
Opinion: The decade since 9/11 has eroded – and confirmed – American values

Did this time capsule of forecasts get it right? 

Well, let’s just say that the would-be prophets of late 2001 can now both crow and eat crow.

The editorial’s crystal ball was a device mainly to offer tips for action and buck up morale when hope and a road map were in short supply. 

Still, it would be helpful now to put on a Rip van Winkle hat and look back at a decade of change – and score the accuracy of all that prognosticating.

First, here is what the editorial did not get right:

The crisis failed to force Americans to adopt civility in political discourse or curb the blame game over security. They did not fully embrace US Muslims. Except regarding foreign wars and disasters, Americans read less foreign news. The media, notably talk shows, continue to divide, not unite. Digital games are more violent, not less.Washington has largely failed to address Arab grievances, such as the lack of a Palestinian state. The former World Trade Center site is still not rebuilt.

Despite all that, the predictions that did come true perhaps matter most.

 America has shown resilience in reforming its security agencies to roll back Al Qaeda and it found a wide consensus on balancing civil liberties with certain restrictions on freedom. Its Muslim community has tried to check home-grown terrorists.

Through two land wars, Americans learned they must redefine their role in the world and act less unilaterally. 

Rather than force Arabs to change, they’ve offered them help to change themselves. 

Most of all, the 9/11 attacks compelled Americans to better appreciate the ideals of liberty and openness. 

They also embraced those who safeguard the United States, especially war-torn soldiers. 

A new generation (the “Millennials”) expressed a commitment to service and a realistic patriotism.

While polls show that a large majority of Americans believe their ideals make their national character unique in the world, now they are also more afraid of losing them. 

That concern hints at the continuing need to realize that US security does not just lie in the absence of terrorist danger, but in affirming what is right about the US – and being grateful for it.

Such a shift would be the best predictor of the next 10 years.

Related stories

9/11 lessons not learned: three failed reforms
9/11 books: Which should you pick up?
Too young to understand, 'Generation 9/11' embraces media for meaning
Opinion: The decade since 9/11 has eroded – and confirmed – American values

http://www.csmonitor.com/Commentary/the-monitors-view/2011/0909/An-update-on-a-post-9-11-forecast

BRIGHT SPOT ON THE HORIZON FOR USA - CHINA TRADE...FINALLY SOMETHING USA CAN SELL TO CHINA!!!...

China will need 5,000 new planes by 2030: Boeing

by Staff Writers

Beijing (AFP) Sept 7, 2011





US aviation giant Boeing said Wednesday it estimated China would need 5,000 new planes worth $600 billion by 2030, as growing wealth among the middle class triggers an air travel boom.

Randy Tinseth, vice president of marketing for Boeing's commercial airplane section, said the Seattle-based company had revised up its expectations from last year, when it predicted China would need 4,330 new planes by 2029.

Tinseth told reporters in Beijing the upgrade comes after the company enjoyed "a better year" than expected in China and also reflects greater demand for air travel among Chinese.

"Sustained strong economic growth, growing trade activities, increasing personal wealth and income, as well continued market liberalisation will be the driving forces in shaping China's air travel market," he said.

"But also, especially as we look at the international, we see an opportunity for the Chinese carriers to grow their market share."

Boeing predicts that over the next 20 years, Chinese airlines' fleet of planes will increase from the current 1,750 to 5,930.

Of the new planes, 16 percent will be replacements for ageing aircraft and 84 percent extra purchases, Tinseth said.

China's air travel is booming. A total of 267 million air passenger trips were recorded in the country in 2010, up 15.8 percent from the previous year, official figures show.

"We are becoming more Asia-centric," said Tinseth.

"For the first time last year, the North American travel market was surpassed by travel within the Asia-Pacific (region)... China will account for more than 40 percent of demand in the Asia Pacific" over the next 20 years, he added.

He said Boeing had no plans to set up an assembly factory in China, unlike its European rival Airbus which already operates a plant for A320 planes in the northern city of Tianjin.

Tinseth said Boeing aimed to maintain its 51 to 52 percent share of the Chinese market.

But the planned launch of the China-made C919 commercial plane in 2016 could make this difficult, as it will compete directly with the Boeing 737 and Airbus 320.

http://www.spacemart.com/reports/China_will_need_5000_new_planes_by_2030_Boeing_999.html

USA AMBASSADOR TO PHILIPPINES LOVES MANGOES AND ALL FOOD FILIPINO...WILL HE ATTEND MANGO CONFERENCE IN SEPTEMBER ???...

US envoy’s fast-food diplomacy

By Maricar CP Hampton
FilAm Star
4:23 pm | Saturday, August 20th, 2011




Ambassador Harry Thomas Jr. poses with a Jollibee mascot. Photo by the US Embassy in Manila
Barely two years into the job and United States Ambassador to the Philippines Harry Thomas Jr. is smitten with everything Filipino. He’s tried ‘balut’ and ‘lambanog’ and swears he likes them.

“I couldn’t be more than a few weeks without Filipino food,” he told a Filipino American crowd gathered at the Asia Society in Washington D.C. ‘Adobo,’ he confessed, is his favorite Philippine dish.

Two weeks into his recent home leave, he took his mom, Haladonia Thomas, to try Philippine fast-food atJollibee and Red Ribbon bake shop in Queens. At Jollibee, they ordered Chickenjoy and hamburger. For dessert, they headed to Red Ribbon for a slice of mango cake and ‘halo- halo.’

“My mom is now a fan of mango cake,” the New York-born Thomas told his audience.

Using food as his entry point, Thomas worked his way through Philippine-American relations, and characterized bilateral ties as being “strong as ever.”

He reiterated America’s commitment to provide support to the Philippines over the issue of the Spratly Islands conflict. “No one should doubt the United States’ commitment to the Philippines,” he said.

Manila and Beijing are in a standoff over a group of islands along the Palawan waters being claimed by both countries.

“Lately, we have seen growing concern in the Philippines about conflicting territorial claims in the South China Sea (West Philippine Sea),” he said. “Like every other nation, we have a national interest in freedom of navigation and respect for international law.”

“The United States does not take sides on the competing territorial disputes, but we believe claimants should pursue their territorial claims in accordance with the UN convention on the law of the sea,” he said, echoing the Philippine position.

Thomas praised President Benigno Aquino Jr. for his “desire to deliver good and clean governance” as in the time he called on officials to eliminate the use of car sirens – a practice Aquino equated with abuse of power.

“I’m impressed with President Aquino’s desire to level the playing field,” he said. “The fact that something so small as a siren went out… (This) has been a key to a wonderful beginning.”

He also commended Aquino for waging war against heinous crimes and human trafficking, which is “nothing short of modern-day slavery.”

“I am delighted to tell you, there has been progress. We support the strong partnership between the civil society and government agencies that have worked to prevent victimization, rescue those who have been abused, apprehend perpetrators and convict the guilty. Much remains to be done, but the US government has recognized Philippine progress,” said Thomas.

http://globalnation.inquirer.net/9695/us-envoy%E2%80%99s-fast-food-diplomacy

AFTER BLASTING USA...ON ECONOMIC IRRESPONSIBILITY...CHINA FACES "SOBERING" REALITY...THAT THERE IS NO CHOICE BUT TO HOLD ONTO USA TREASURY HOLDINGS...

China lacks options on US debt: analysts

by Staff Writers
Shanghai (AFP) Aug 11, 2011





China has launched a barrage of criticism at the United States over the debt crisis, but analysts say the world's largest foreign holder of US debt has no choice but to maintain its Treasury holdings.

Chinese state media have savaged the United States over what they call its "addiction to debt," in a series of unusually critical articles.

An analyst writing in one newspaper went so far as to compare US debt to a "Ponzi scheme", in the wake of an unprecedented US downgrade.

China's central bank said last week it would diversify its foreign currency investments, warning of "large fluctuations and uncertainty in the US Treasury bond market," even as it welcomed a deal to raise the US debt ceiling.

But despite the rhetoric, analysts said shifting out of the US dollar can only be a long-term aspiration, with Beijing's hands tied for several reasons in the short run.

China has the world's largest foreign exchange reserves at more than $3 trillion, and experts said it would be difficult for it to find alternative investment options able to absorb such volume.

With around $1.2 trillion in US Treasuries, Beijing also cannot conduct large-scale selling of dollar assets without diminishing the value of its remaining holdings, they said.

"Any significant selling by China of US dollar assets would be noticed by global markets and could spark panic selling of dollar reserves on a grand scale," Ma Jun, Hong Kong-based economist with Deutsche Bank, said in a report.

With sovereign debt worries in European countries such as Italy and Spain threatening the entire eurozone, investment in US debt might still be attractive, said Liu Hongke, economist at CCB International Securities.

"It is very difficult to cut the holdings of US Treasuries. With such huge foreign exchange reserves, if you don't invest in US debt, it is hardly possible to diversify them," Liu said.

China has set up a sovereign wealth fund, China Investment Corporation, to funnel the reserves into investments but it was proceeding slowly, she added.

"Despite the downgrade (in the US credit rating), the United States is still safer than Europe," Liu said.

The latest salvos from China came after ratings agency Standard & Poor's downgraded the United States to an AA+ rating from AAA, on political risk and a rising debt burden.

US officials have also made the case that despite the downgrade and a political showdown that drove the United States to the edge of default, the country remains one of the world's safest investments.

Analysts said that any sale of US dollar assets would also put pressure on China to allow its own currency to rise more sharply, something it has resisted out of fears of hurting its own exporters.

China scoops up US dollars from its massive exports and uses them to buy US bonds. A halt in dollar buying would put pressure on its own currency to rise, since it would reverse the trend of selling yuan to buy the US currency.

The United States has repeatedly called on China to allow its currency to appreciate more strongly against the US dollar and to undertake financial reforms.

But Beijing worries a stronger yuan would make its exports more expensive and therefore less competitive.

Michael Pettis, senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, saw little change in China's appetite for US Treasuries, since that would require a change in long-standing economic policy.

"They simply cannot stop and if they do, they will be doing what the US government has been trying to get them to do for several years," said Pettis, who is also professor of finance at Peking University.

China also risked the political wrath of other countries if it built up large stores of their bonds or currencies, meaning Beijing had few options besides US dollar investments, Pettis said.

"Neither Europe, nor Japan, nor anybody else will allow you to. If you buy too much of their currency, they will take trade action against you," he said.

Despite its impotence in the face of the US debt crisis, People's University professor Zhao Xijun said China's public fury would continue unabated as the rising nation asserted its perceived rights as an investor.

"China, as an investor, has the right to protect its interests," he told AFP.

http://www.terradaily.com/reports/China_lacks_options_on_US_debt_analysts_999.html

"COMMUNIST" CHINA ENJOYS LECTURING "CAPITALIST" USA ON ECONOMIC PRUDENCE...REVERSAL OF FORTUNES ???

China tells U.S. "good old days are over"






By Walter Brandimarte and Melanie Lee

NEW YORK/SHANGHAI | Sat Aug 6, 2011 10:23am EDT

(Reuters) - China bluntly criticized the United States on Saturday one day after the superpower's credit rating was downgraded, saying the "good old days" of borrowing were over.

Standard & Poor's cut the U.S. long-term credit rating from top-tier AAA by a notch to AA-plus on Friday over concerns about the nation's budget deficits and climbing debt burden.

China -- the United States' biggest creditor -- said Washington only had itself to blame for its plight and called for a new stable global reserve currency.

"The U.S. government has to come to terms with the painful fact that the good old days when it could just borrow its way out of messes of its own making are finally gone," China's official Xinhua news agency said in a commentary.

After a week which saw $2.5 trillion wiped off global markets, the move deepened investors' concerns of an impending recession in the United States and over the euro zone crisis.

Finance ministers and central bankers of the Group of Seven major industrialized nations will confer by telephone later on Saturday or on Sunday, a senior European diplomatic source said.

The source said the credit rating downgrade had added a global dimension on top of the euro zone debt issue, raising the need for international coordination.

"The G7 will confer by telephone. It's not yet confirmed whether it will be in one stage or in two stages, tonight and tomorrow," the source said.

French Finance Minister Francois Baroin, who would chair such a meeting under France's G7 and G20 presidency, said it was too early to say whether there would be an early G7 gathering.

In the Xinhua commentary, China scorned the United States for its "debt addiction" and "short sighted" political wrangling.

"China, the largest creditor of the world's sole superpower, has every right now to demand the United States address its structural debt problems and ensure the safety of China's dollar assets," it said.

It urged the United States to cut military and social welfare expenditure. Further credit downgrades would very likely undermine the world economic recovery and trigger new rounds of financial turmoil, it said.

"International supervision over the issue of U.S. dollars should be introduced and a new, stable and secured global reserve currency may also be an option to avert a catastrophe caused by any single country," Xinhua said.

In Washington, President Barack Obama urged lawmakers on Saturday to set aside partisan politics after the debt battle, saying they must work to put the United States' fiscal house in order and refocus on stimulating its stagnant economy.

S&P blamed the downgrade in part on the political gridlock in Washington, saying politics was preventing the United States from addressing its deficit and debt problems.

Obama called on Congress to back measures to give tax relief to the middle class, extend jobless benefits and pass long-delayed international trade pacts.

"Both parties are going to have to work together on a larger plan to get our nation's finances in order," he said.

"In the long term, the health of our economy depends on it...in the short term, our urgent mission has to be getting this economy growing faster and creating jobs."

STAY COOL

In contrast to the Chinese criticism, France's Baroin said France had faith in the United States' ability to get out of this "difficult period."

Friday's U.S. unemployment numbers were better than expected and so things were heading in the right direction, he said.

"Therefore, one should not dramatise, one needs to remain cool-headed, one should look at the fundamentals," he told France's iTele.

While the impact of the rating cut on financial markets when they reopen on Monday may be modest because the decision was expected, the shift may have a long-term impact for U.S. standing in the world, the dollar's status, and the global financial system.

"I think even if it was half-expected, the consequence will be far reaching," said Ciaran O'Hagan, fixed income strategist at Societe Generale in Paris.

"It will weigh on secure assets. The bigger reaction will be on risky assets, including equities and on agencies (Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae) and states backed directly by the federal government."

But he added: "U.S. Treasuries will remain a benchmark. This is a ship which takes a long time to turn around."

Norbert Barthle, a budget expert for German Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservatives said the downgrade would certainly provoke further turbulence in markets.

"I'm not surprised about the U.S. rating downgrade, rather I am astonished that for weeks, international rating agencies have focused their attention on the European debt situation but not the American one. For a while, there have been clear worries about America's economic woes but also the fact the U.S. is heavily indebted."

NO EARLY ITALIAN ELECTION

In Europe, Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi on Saturday ruled out calling early elections to stem market panic that has pounded Italian assets and forced his government to bring forward austerity measures.

Italy buckled on Friday to world pressure by pledging to bring forward cuts to balance the budget in 2013 in return for European Central Bank help with funding.

European policy makers are concerned that a debt emergency in the euro zone's third largest economy could completely overwhelm bailout mechanisms set up to help smaller troubled countries like Greece or Ireland.

Italy is due to go to the polls in 2013 but Berlusconi dismissed any suggestion of emulating Spain, where Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero has called an early election to tackle the crisis.

"This has absolutely not been talked about," Berlusconi told reporters. "This has never been an option."

The European Union's top economic official praised Italy's decision to accelerate budget-balancing measures and structural economic reforms and said swift implementation was now crucial.

"I strongly support this announcement and call on the authorities to quickly translate it into concrete measures," European Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn told Reuters in a telephone interview.

"This will help to boost potential growth, secure budgetary retrenchment and bolster market confidence," Rehn said.

The European Central Bank sources said the bank remains divided over whether to buy Italian government bonds but even some of those who favor the move say Italy should do more to front-load austerity measures.

Two sources said they expected ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet to hold a teleconference of the bank's policy-setting Governing Council over the weekend to discuss how to respond to turmoil in financial markets and Italy's latest measures.

China and Japan have called for coordinated action to avert a new worldwide financial crisis. India's finance minister Pranab Mukherjee told reporters: "There is no need to unnecessarily press the panic button."

(Additional reporting by Reuters bureaux; Writing by Angus MacSwan)

SOUTHEAST STARTS TO PAY ATTENTION AS TROPICAL STORM "EMILY" GATHERS STRENGTH OVER HISPANOLA...

Southeast US Should Watch Emily Closely


By Meghan Evans, Meteorologist
Aug 2, 2011; 2:30 PM ET


                                                                            Visible satellite image of Tropical Storm Emily over the Caribbean Sea Tuesday afternoon.

Tropical Storm Emily has formed in the Atlantic, and the Southeast U.S. should watch this storm closely since it may become a major contender by the weekend.

The AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center has the latest stats on Emily.

The storm has been slow to strengthen thus far due to a large amount of dry air in the atmosphere.

"The system is being impeded by dry air to the north," according to Expert Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski. "Vertical cross sections of the storm and along its forecast path suggest this dry air will continue to keep the storm from intensifying at a faster pace."

The interaction of the storm with higher terrain of the Caribbean Islands will also act as an inhibiting factor in the coming days. Because of these factors, any strengthening that occurs while the storm is pushing through the Caribbean should be very slow to occur.

However, the storm is churning over very warm water in an environment with little wind shear. Both of these factors favor strengthening.






Related to the Story

• Tropical Storm Emily a Concern for the U.S.

• Protecting Your House from Wind

• Planning Ahead for Weather Emergencies

• Naming Hurricanes





Emily should continue on a westward to northwestward track across the Caribbean over the next couple of days with the current storm track expected to take the storm across Hispaniola on Wednesday and the eastern tip of Cuba on Thursday.

There may be a window of opportunity for Emily to strengthen into a hurricane as the storm emerges into the western Atlantic in the vicinity of the Bahamas or perhaps east of Florida by late in the week or over the weekend. However, the window for movement and strength is still far from certain until Emily organizes further.



Impact on Caribbean

Torrential rainfall will impact the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and northeastern Caribbean islands from Guadeloupe to Anguilla as well through tonight. Rainfall amounts of 4 inches with locally higher amounts are possible.

Puerto Rico is up next for the heaviest rainfall tonight and Wednesday, while Emily brushes by to the south of the island nation. The heaviest rain will fall over the higher terrain, leading to a significant threat of flash flooding and mudslides.

The storm is then projected to cross Hispaniola, dumping several inches of rain and stirring high winds as it crosses the island.



Potential Impact in the U.S.

The exact path and strength of Emily in the long range is far from set in stone at this point in time. However, it is a possibility that Emily tracks east of Florida due to steering flow around the back edge of the Bermuda High.

As the current forecast path stands, the heaviest rain and wind from Emily would impact the Bahamas on Friday. Southern and central Florida could be impacted by rain and winds from Emily as early as Saturday. Miami is among the cities and towns that could get rainfall from Emily if the storm's continues to be projected just east of the Sunshine State.

At the very least, it appears that Emily will move close enough to the U.S. to produce very dangerous surf with high wave action and a high rip current risk. So, whether Emily dumps rain and produces rain or not, vacationers and local bathers and surfers alike need to watch the storm very closely.










Keep checking back with AccuWeather.com for the latest thinking on Emily.

Tropical Storm Emily Forms Over Atlantic


Tropical Storm Emily a Concern for U.S.

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/53223/southeast-us-should-watch-emil.asp

RAMADAN BEGINS FOR 1.6 BILLION MUSLIMS AROUND THE WORLD...AND HILLARY RODHAM CLINTON WISHES THEM A BLESSED RAMADAN ON BEHALF OF USA..."RAMADAN KAREEM"...

Press Statement

Hillary Rodham Clinton
Secretary of State
Washington, DC

August 1, 2011





On behalf of the people of the United States, I wish all Muslims around the world a happy and blessed Ramadan.

Ramadan is a time for self-reflection, sharing and renewal. American Muslims make valuable contributions to our country every day and millions around the world will commemorate this month with acts of service and volunteerism to their communities.

Along with dozens of our Embassies, I will host an Eid Celebration in Washington for Muslims and non-Muslims to join together and reflect on our common values, faith and the gifts of the past year.

During this month of peace and humility, I wish the 1.6 billion Muslims around the world Ramadan Kareem.



PRN: 2011/1263

PROJECTED PATH OF TROPICAL STORM "EMILY" AS OF TUESDAY, 02 AUGUST 2011...

STORM BREWING IN THE ATLANTIC MAY DEVELOP INTO SEASON'S FIRST CONCERN FOR USA COAST...

Tropical System Threatens Antilles, Concern for U.S. coast

By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist
Aug 1, 2011; 4:15 PM ET




A developing tropical system, destined to become Emily early this week, will threaten the Antilles first and could approach part of the U.S. coastline this weekend.

The strength of the system will likely determine its path and survivability in the days ahead.

The system has had some issues with dry air and wind shear over the weekend. It may have to negotiate 4,000-foot mountains on Puerto Rico or 10,000-foot mountains on Hispaniola later this week.

According to Meteorologist Mark Mancuso, "A strong system is more likely to survive the trip through the rugged mountains of the Greater Antilles."







Most of our forecast tools are turning the system more to the northwest as the week progresses. Currently, it is moving on a westerly track aimed at the Caribbean.

According to Expert Senior Meteorologist Paul Pastelok, "A strong system is more likely to curve and create its own environment, fighting wind shear and blocking high pressure systems."

Threat to the Antilles

Emily is likely to become a tropical storm by the middle of the week. However, even at this level or a weaker state, it brings threats to lives and property.

As it interacts with the islands of the Lesser Antilles, it will unleash localized torrential rain, which will lead to areas of flash flooding, mudslides and road washouts.

A couple of inches of rain could fall in less than an hour's time under some of the intense downpours the tropical system produces.



Downpours from mere tropical waves so far this season have caused problems with flooding in the Lesser Antilles, including the failure of a dam on Dominica.

Torrential rainfall is a possibility from the tropical system through the Windward and Leeward islands. By the time the system reaches the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, it could be packing a one-two punch with heavy rain and strong winds.

Indeed a hurricane making the northward cut through the area from Puerto Rico to Hispaniola could have serious consequences from flooding and damaging winds.

Concern for the U.S.

We have a long way to go with this system until it gets close to U.S. waters, but by this weekend, we could have a situation of concern.

According to the National Hurricane Center, while there have been many tropical storms that have made landfall along the Atlantic Seaboard of the U.S. in recent years, the last hurricane to hit that area was Category 3 Jeanne in Florida during 2004.

Category 1 Gaston was the last hurricane to hit the U.S. Atlantic Seaboard north of Florida, during the same year. Earl hit Nova Scotia, Canada, as a hurricane in 2010.

This system's path is still uncertain. 

However, we have every reason to believe it will reach at least tropical storm status and could even become the Atlantic's first hurricane of 2011 before the week is over, in Caribbean waters.

If, and these are big if's at this point, the system does become strong enough to turn north and survive the trip through the Greater Antilles gauntlet, it could be drawn in close to Florida, cross Florida reaching the Gulf of Mexico, or it could even make a right turn up along the Atlantic Seaboard.

"Computer models probably will not have a good handle on the system until it gets stronger, hence the uncertainty at this point," Mancuso said.


This graphic shows one possible avenue for the system to follow. However, a track more to the west is still possible.

"A relatively weak system, such as a tropical storm, could continue westward through the Caribbean," Mancuso added.

Look for this system to become Tropical Depression 5, or even Tropical Storm Emily, on or before Tuesday of this week.

Initially, heavy rain will be the problem. Strong winds, building seas and more heavy rain will follow as the system strengthens.

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/53183/tropcal-system-threatens-antil.asp

Miss USA 2011 Alyssa Campanella Swimsuit Photos

The road to São Paulo.


Miss USA 2011 Alyssa Campanella


Miss USA 2011 Alyssa Campanella Swimsuit Photos

Video MISS FLORIDA USA 2012 INTERVIEW

Video MISS FLORIDA USA 2012 INTERVIEW

Photos of Miss Florida USA 2012 Karina Baez here

Miss HAWAII and Miss Hawaii Teen USA

Miss HAWAII USA Angela Byrd



The Miss Hawaii Teen USA competition is the pageant that selects the representative for the state of Hawaii in the Miss Teen USA pageant.

New photos of Miss California USA 2011 Katie Blair

New photos of Miss California USA 2011 Katie Blair






Katie Blair - Miss California USA 2011
Courtesy of Miss CA USA

Miss Maryland USA 2011 Allyn Rose

The road to Las Vegas.

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Miss Maryland USA 2011 Allyn Rose










Courtesy of Miss MD USA

Miss Illinois USA 2011 Angela Sparrow

The road to Las Vegas.

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Miss Illinois USA 2011 Angela Sparrow












Courtesy of Miss IL USA

Miss South Carolina USA 2011 Courtney Hope Turner

The road to Las Vegas.

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Miss South Carolina USA 2011 Courtney Hope Turner












Courtesy of Miss SC USA

Miss Delaware USA 2011 Katie Hanson

The road to Las Vegas.

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Miss Delaware USA 2011 Katie Hanson






Courtesy of Miss DE USA

Miss Florida USA 2012 - Karina Brez

The road to Miss USA 2012.

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Miss Florida USA 2012 Karina Brez


23-year-old Karina will represent FL in Miss USA 2012 Pageant.
Courtesy of Miss FL USA

Miss Kentucky USA 2011 Kia Hampton with Miss Kentucky Teen USA 2011 Stephanie Jones

The road to Las Vegas.

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Miss Kentucky USA 2011 Kia Hampton with Miss Kentucky Teen USA 2011 Stephanie Jones






Courtesy of Miss KY USA